India's rise to the 4th largest economy inspires national pride but evokes skepticism over its true significance given the country's low GDP per capita and persistent social issues. Many commenters attribute India's economic rank largely to its vast population, highlighting prevailing inequality and inadequate infrastructure. Concerns are raised about whether this economic milestone genuinely enhances everyday life for the average citizen.

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By Micah McCartney - China News Reporter: 

It's only a matter of time before India overtakes Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy, experts say, with some predicting the milestone could come within two years.

Japan's economy stood at $4.22 trillion in 2023, just ahead of India's $3.55 trillion.

Read more: [https://www.newsweek.com/india-news-economy-surpass-japan-1986207](https://www.newsweek.com/india-news-economy-surpass-japan-1986207)

newsweek

HIL Indian economy climbs at Tahiti’s expense

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&gt; SS: Summary: India Becomes World's Fourth-Largest Economy
&gt;
&gt;India has officially surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy globally, according to NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, citing IMF data. With a $4 trillion GDP, India now trails only the United States, China, and Germany. Subrahmanyam expressed confidence that India could rise to third place within 2.5 to 3 years, given current economic strategies and global conditions. He emphasized India’s growing manufacturing competitiveness and revealed plans for a second phase of asset monetization to be announced in August 2025. 

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India population Approximately 1.42 billion. 
Japan population : Roughly 124 million (as of February 2024).

With ten times more bigger population than japan , we are celebrating we surpassed their economy now . I don’t know if this is an insult or achievement .  Stop with this chest thumping

play3xxx1

SS: Summary: India Becomes World's Fourth-Largest Economy

India has officially surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy globally, according to NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, citing IMF data. With a $4 trillion GDP, India now trails only the United States, China, and Germany. Subrahmanyam expressed confidence that India could rise to third place within 2.5 to 3 years, given current economic strategies and global conditions. He emphasized India’s growing manufacturing competitiveness and revealed plans for a second phase of asset monetization to be announced in August 2025.

BROWN-MUNDA_

It's not a huge deal but progress is progress. That should be the takeaway from this. 

Nomustang

I doubt normal Japanese people are concerned over India surpassing Japan than on rising prices for their day-to-day items.

The headline should be “Japanese economist and politicians angst as India set to…”

prtk297

Angst over what? They have 10x the population of Japan, I would expect they have a larger economy as they further develop

smorkoid

This is a non-issue and a non-story. I'm originally from India and the country, despite having built trains and bridges, is incomparable even to other developing countries like Turkey or Mexico. It's in a league of its own as to how underdeveloped it is and remains to be.

India's greatest strength seems to be foreigners believing it's capable of so much when in fact its rise is going to be quite slow. I expect it to feel underdeveloped in many aspects even decades from now because people outside rarely understand the scope of its entrenched problems and issues.

magnusdeus123

Its a surprisingly useless article by DW, India's Economy is already 3x the size of Japan, which isn't bad for Japan though and Japan has 12x less people than India.

[IMF GDP PPP Data](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) + [Informal Economy data](https://archive.ph/mBijZ) = India's Economy is approximately $20.3T, Japan's $7.3T.

For anyone wondering why GDP PPP instead of unadjusted and raw Nominal GDP: ''The major use of PPPs is as a first step in making inter-country comparisons in real terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and its component expenditures''[-OECD](https://www.oecd.org/sdd/purchasingpowerparities-frequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm#FAQ3)

''The right metric for international comparisons is purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted output. This corrects for exchange rate fluctuations and differences in various national prices.'' [-Bruegel](https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/european-unions-remarkable-growth-performance-relative-united-states)

There are many more relevant Economic Organisations and Economists talking about this and why Nominal GDP is not how to measure the size of an economy but i don't want to ''spam'' links here, the above quoted organisations have dozends of member states, Japan is a member of OECD too.

_CHIFFRE

donarudotorampu69

I’m Japanese but I never heard of anyone around me concerned about an economy of a country with 12 times the population as ours surpassing. It’s totally different from a country with 2/3 of the population and is in a recession surpassing our economy. The main concern is that our international projection would deteriorate which would make us difficult to influence the decision making process of new international norms. I personally am not concerned about it much because Indian philosophy and values are quite similar to that of Japan compared to European and middle eastern countries.

ConsiderationOk9190

JapaneseAngst

Yeah, really angsty about having indoor plumbing and a reliable electricity grid.

Yeah I know a lot of people in Japan experiencing a ton of worry on the daily about how the economy of the most populous country (and roughly 10x or more the population of Japan) compares to their own. That's what the citizens are thinkin about!

Particular_Stop_3332

Now compare GDP per capital. And see how the countries compare. Also number of people under the poverty line.

Tango-Down-167

[dw.com](https://dw.com) link wasn't working for me briefly, so here's another one - 

[https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/India-to-surpass-Japan-as-4th-largest-economy-in-2025-IMF-says](https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/India-to-surpass-Japan-as-4th-largest-economy-in-2025-IMF-says)

&amp;#x200B;

The top 3 are now US, China and India.

thesunbeamslook

People still believe stats coming out of China and India? Spending a month in either place will make you think twice about real GDP.

POpportunity6336

I worked with Indians, it's a failed communist country pretending to be a democracy.

CaptainKobayashi

Apologies if my comment is out of topic but as an Indian who just came back from her Japan trip, I was ecstatic that I could finally divide a foreign currency by 2 while calculating how much it is in rupees instead of multiplying and having my heart broken. It was insane that a first world country was as cheap/ cheaper than India (food, convenience store stuff, clothes, trains, etc).

theninefan

Japan you have nothing to worry about. India is not even close to Japan

Ambitious-Pirate-505

I am a Japanese. I don't mind GDP of India. They have 10 times more population. Germany has less population and working hours of Germany is less than Japanese. It make me annoyed.

hogie12345

China and India should have 7x~10x GDP against Japan because of population, like USA(almost 2x).

Haruka-Oh

GDP and quality of life are totally separate issues... Even if China or india passes up the US, the'll do it by polluting their country. If China was doing so well, why are they beginning to blast water cannons at Philippine military vessels and fishing boats. They recognize that unless they take some serious bullying tactics and continue to push into the south china sea, the standards of living will continue to drop as it has since covid. Taiwan would be a suicide mission for China as well because even if they took Taiwan, the Taiwanese would self sabotage and refuse to implement their chip production, leaving China well behind. China imports over 80% of their chips from Taiwan and Ji understands that this is the best relationship that they will have and and invasion would be absolutely catastrophic to the Chinese gov and people a whole

Revolutionary_Area51

If Japan were really serious at fighting this (as well as the birth rate) allowing and accepting foreign labour is the only real answer. Remove restrictions on half children (forcing them to choose at 20) and allow residents who naturalize the right to keep their original citizenship. Watch the numbers change within a few short years.

But this is all a pipe dream, we all know that Japan doesn't want change. Some very much still act as though the black ships are in Tokyo harbour.

DM-15

There is sooo much FUD about Japan it is comical. People really lack the financial literacy to understand what is going on in general. Japan is still the 4th largest economy on the planet. Could be worse.

greyspurv

Lolll this seems overly sensitive. Circle of life angsty people. Viking, Romans, Egyptians, British all been through it.

throw_away_17381

That's what you get for being subservient to the Americans, for god sake have some spine

sulitipid2

Haha! How low can you go! Oh but a weak yen is such a GOOD idea! Hell ya keep going.

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Lest any one misunderstand, india can have all its problems and still be the 3rd largest, or largest. And a few years later, once the population shrinks, wealth allows people to lead a laid back life, the growth will slow. Next in line, the African nations would catchup in productivity and become the focus. But that is okay,  because hopefully per capita wealth would be high enough so that they don’t need to leave the nation for a better quality of living.

hereforthedankness

If current trends hold true without accounting for factors like climate change and its accompanying geopolitical instability then it's pretty likely that india could feasibly become the third or second largest economy in the world due to the sheer size of its population. 


But the issue is that climate change is a major threat to the global economy right now with its severity only expected to increase drastically within the next decade. Given water scarcity issues, it's pretty likely that india and china will be at each others throats over the himalayas in the near future.

ghost103429

 Surpass Germany in 2027? I think India will surpass Germany end of 2023. German GDP in Q1 and Q2 of this year was 935 and 942 Billion euros respectively. Assuming the Q3 and Q4 Gdp numbers are 950 Billon euros ( I am ignoring the downward effect on the gdp due to rising energy costs, shutting down of industries in the winter, inflation, and reduced consumer spending due to high heating costs ). We have a grand total of 3777 Billion euros . The euro is currently trading at 1 euro = 1 dollar ( Assuming the euro does not depreciate further ). 

So that is 3.7 trillion dollars in 2022 for Germany . India is expected to be 3.5 trillion in 2022. Won't be surprised that the Indian economy will be large than German by end of 2023 .

IamAHorny

With India surpassing the United Kingdom (UK) to become the world's 5th largest economy, a report by the State Bank of India (SBI) has foreseen that the country will outstrip two other major economies by the end of this decade.  
  
The SBI's Economic Research Department predicted that India would surpass Germany in 2027 and most likely Japan by 2029 at the current rate of growth and become the world's 3rd largest economy--a movement of 7 places upwards since 2014 when India was ranked 10th.

Knightoflemons

India's GDP/capita will have to be permanently below 1/10 that of developed countries for it to not end up in the top 3 at some point. This is just implausible.

I think India will surpass Germany and Japan sooner than 2029 because Germany and Japan are both committing economic suicide. China will surpass Japan in per capita GDP over the next 15 years.

jz187

Regardless of how India grows, I expect Germany's position as a (current) economic powerhouse to dwindle and fall behind anyway, primarily due to the debt brake they've implemented into their consitution as of 2008 prohibiting taking on debt (i.e. a balanced budget). It has caused an immense investment backlog (infrastructure, digitalization, schools, etc.), while burdening the middle class with the 2nd highest tax rates in over all OECD countries. Germany is not the Germany it once was. This isn't even considering the significant demographics problem with aging population.

t3amkillv3

For everyone reading this as "India is growing at a spectacular pace", there are many factors,

Its the combination of stable population growth and equally ***a decline in manufacturing, population and an increase in basic costs for the other economies.***

Germany, and the European Union at large seem to rest on their laurels quite a bit. I've lost count of the number of times i've heard Von Der Leyen respond to questions about the EUs competitive advantage with : "*We have not a lot of people, but we have affluent people compared to the emerging markets"* or a variation of that sentence.

It shocks me how much German manufacturing has lost to China already in just the past decade. Previous advanced manufacturing once unthinkable to originate in China have moved permanently. German TV has also done plenty of [exposés on the phenomenon and rivalry](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UN99-3kJ_Y)

If Europe continues on their present path, we will see an aging population, increasing energy costs leading to increasing costs across the board with a declining manufacturing base and increased competition from where most of the worlds young people are : In Asia.

India has something that very few nations possess. A LARGE, LARGE population base willing to live in many different classes. Unlike China, where all the kids try to only run after office jobs, you have the bulk of Indias population working the jobs that keep inflation down. I was amazed that you can pay someone the equivalent of 10 cents (US) or less and they ride a motorbike halfway across a city to deliver food to you even in the most demanding environment.

DisjointedHuntsville

India is just now hitting their demographic dividend. They have a large working age population and small elderly and childhood populations. If they don't fuck up their policies (never a sure thing with India), they will ride that demographic wave to wealth, just as China did. 

However, a demographic dividend is like a loan. It's a big pool of potential wealth but that loan does get called in, eventually, and the wealth disappears when the massive working age population becomes a massive retiree population.  

We saw this play out in Japan roughly 3 decades ago and we're watching it play out in China now. China's growth story is over,   India's is just starting (Mexico is also looking really good for the same reason, plus NAFTA2)

buppyu

i'm gonna hit that doubt button. India has too many issues with itself and the heat waves.

So far I see it still in 5th place or 4th place if China fails.

Overtaking Germany and Japan? Thats kinda unlikely due to their stability and strong trade and innovation networks.

ghigoli

Who cares ?! As an Indian I know very well most economic growth does not reach 99.99% of the population.. even the middle class who have managed to see their income grow has seen ridiculous inflation as well.. so only the ultra rich and crooked politicians are making money .. the rest are screwed .. this is irrespective of any political party which is governing

prodev321

A large percentage of Indias population lives in abject poverty.

They have a long way to go to be properly considered a modern country with international influences

Hudds83

No, it won't. It would have if the climate weren't breaking down but there is no future for any economy on our current course. Those that are wealthy enough to survive early challenges may live to wish they'd died in earlier ones.

Theres no other side to this. It keeps getting worse. We should be cleaning up and checking out but some part of us believes this will stabilize if enough people die. Wish I could be around to see their face when they call it

PervyNonsense

Maybe, but statistics can mean all kinds of things.  They'll still have a lower per capita GDP.  They will still have much higher poverty rates.  Will it really be a good thing for their country?

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Nominal GDP doesn't really matter.........

India is lagging in other Indices and Per Capita Income is in Shambles and there is really exaggerated amount of unequal distribution of wealth and resources.

Recognition-Radiant

And it will stay 3 rd largest for rest of our lives.

Fancy-Pressure9660

There is literally no point celebrating this when India's GDP per capita was $2,481 in 2023, according to Worldometer. For reference, Bangladesh and Iraq have a higher GDP per capita.

caesarkhosrow

The economy of Japan stagnated decades ago

Curious_Act7873

US sitting there at 30 Trillion $ 

damn!

IloveLegs02

How did the US become so rich, 30 trillion usd, its huge.

Miserable_Volume_372

The rich keep hoarding, the poor keep surviving. This is not progress, it’s a well-packaged illusion, built on brutal inequality.

Chai_Lijiye

How much of this Indian GDP belongs to top 10 percent?

NotallowedLove

Definitely more GDP is better than lesser GDP. Put GDP in itself doesn't say anything about the quality of life of the people. GDP per capita or median house house hold income is a much better measure and India ranks in 100s (even in PPP terms). While increase in GDP would increase the income for people, but it doesn't grow proportionate to GDP growth due to income inequality.

San2411

We are still 1/5 th of our rival. It is all that matters xD

eriek_halenx

India surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest global economy, highlighting its rapid growth and increasing international influence despite having a lower per capita GDP than other leading economies.

India becomes the world's 4th largest economy, surpassing Japan

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